Recent developments in U.S. heavy industry and evolving environmental regulations are pointing toward potential changes in industrial lubricant demand in 2026. A major highlight comes from U.S. Steel, now under Nippon Steel, which plans to restart its idled “B” blast furnace at the Granite City Works facility in Illinois.
The restart, scheduled for the first half of 2026, is expected to create around 400 new jobs and forms part of Nippon Steel’s broader $14 billion investment in U.S. operations. Growth in sectors like automotive, construction, and infrastructure is driving this expansion.
Historically, restarting a blast furnace of this scale leads to a noticeable uptick in demand for industrial lubricants—including hydraulic oils, gear lubricants, metalworking fluids, and greases—as heavy machinery and continuous operations place higher mechanical demands on equipment.
Regulatory developments could further influence this trend. On November 24, 2025, the EPA filed a motion with the U.S. Court of Appeals to vacate the 2024 particulate-emissions “Soot Rule” and revert the PM2.5 standard from 9 µg/m³ back to the 2012 level of 12 µg/m³.
If this adjustment is approved before February 7, 2026, compliance costs for heavy manufacturing, energy production, and metals processing could decrease. Historically, periods of lighter regulatory pressure allow longer production cycles and fewer operational curtailments—conditions that generally boost industrial lubricant consumption across key equipment.
However, broader industrial indicators remain mixed. Federal Reserve data shows that U.S. manufacturing output was flat in September 2025, following a modest 0.1% rise in August, reflecting uneven recovery across sectors. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing Index dipped to 48.2 in November from 48.7 in October, indicating ongoing contraction in some areas. Industry forecasts from the World Steel Association and AIST project U.S. steel output could rise 1–3% in 2026, supported by infrastructure spending and trade-related demand.
Optimistic scenarios linked to protective trade policies could push growth to 5–7%, although this is not the base-case outlook. Historically, events like furnace restarts and incremental industrial expansion have been associated with 2–4% increases in industrial lubricant demand within heavy manufacturing.
For lubricant manufacturers and distributors, the landscape entering 2026 represents cautious opportunity. Increased investment in steel production, combined with potential regulatory easing, could create favorable conditions for heavy-duty and industrial lubricants, even as certain parts of the manufacturing sector operate below full capacity. Monitoring steel utilization rates, regulatory outcomes, and industrial activity closely will be key to navigating the evolving market and capturing new demand.
Editor-at-Large
A passionate writer in the lubricant industry, Awais Iqbal has been covering oils, greases, and industrial fluids since the start of his career. At 25, he’s already written for blogs, catalogs, and brand guides across the UAE. Awais’s insights help companies connect with their audience, and his clear, helpful writing style is trusted by brands in the region.
