Dubai: Oil prices may appear steady for now, but underlying risks are keeping energy markets on edge.
Several new factors are emerging that could disrupt the global crude landscape in the coming weeks. From proposed U.S. tariffs to mounting geopolitical tensions along key maritime oil corridors, uncertainty is building, and market participants are closely watching the developments.
A key variable is former U.S. President Donald Trump. His latest tariff proposal includes a significant 50% duty on Brazilian crude — a move that could limit supply from one of the U.S.’s major oil partners.
In addition, Trump hinted at an upcoming “major statement” concerning Russia, sparking speculation over potential new restrictions on Russian oil exports. This comes at a time when Houthi-led attacks in the Red Sea have already intensified risks for oil shipments through critical routes, keeping traders cautious and supply chains under pressure.
Away from politics and conflict, all eyes are now on U.S. inflation figures as a potential catalyst for the next shift in oil prices.
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Upcoming U.S. economic data, notably the Consumer Price Index (CPI), will be closely watched by oil traders, as it could shape interest rate expectations and demand forecasts. A rise in inflation may lead to further monetary tightening, potentially weighing on energy consumption in the world’s largest economy.
Still, despite the mounting speculation, some analysts remain cautious.
“Current prices are not sustainable,” says Scott Shelton, energy strategist at TP ICAP. “The crude oil outlook, in my view, remains weak.”
Whether oil is poised for a correction or a fresh rally will depend on how key developments unfold in the coming weeks, including policy signals in Washington, geopolitical shifts in the Middle East, and investor sentiment on Wall Street.
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Editor-at-Large
A passionate writer in the lubricant industry, Awais Iqbal has been covering oils, greases, and industrial fluids since the start of his career. At 25, he’s already written for blogs, catalogs, and brand guides across the UAE. Awais’s insights help companies connect with their audience, and his clear, helpful writing style is trusted by brands in the region.
