The UAE economy is gearing up for another high-performance year, with updated projections signaling accelerated growth across trade, manufacturing, logistics, and non-oil industries. The outlook reinforces the UAE’s position as a resilient, well-diversified economic engine and a strategic hub for global commerce.
Revised forecasts from Standard Chartered indicate that the UAE’s GDP is expected to grow by 5.0% in 2026, an upgrade from the earlier 4.0% estimate and well ahead of global growth averages. This builds on strong momentum from 2025, when nominal GDP is estimated at $569 billion, reflecting sustained domestic demand, expanding trade corridors, and continued economic diversification.
Despite softer oil prices potentially easing hydrocarbon revenues, growth is expected to remain firmly supported by non-oil sectors, particularly trade, logistics, manufacturing, financial services, and technology-driven industries. The UAE’s ability to adapt to shifting global supply chains has positioned it as a preferred gateway connecting Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and Africa.
Standard Chartered projects the UAE’s total foreign trade volume to approach $1 trillion by 2026, with Asia-linked trade accounting for nearly one-third of this activity. This growth underscores the country’s rising importance in reconfigured global trade flows, where reliability, connectivity, and export-ready infrastructure are critical.
Domestically, economic activity remains robust. Non-oil GDP is forecast to expand by around 4.5% in 2026, supported by population growth, increased investment inflows, and strong performance across tourism, aviation, logistics, real estate, and industrial production. Manufacturing and technology-focused investments are adding depth and stability, reducing exposure to oil market cycles and strengthening long-term economic fundamentals.
Confidence in the UAE’s growth trajectory is echoed by leading institutions. The Central Bank of the UAE projects real GDP growth of approximately 5.3% in 2026, while the IMF and World Bank both anticipate growth near 5%, extending into 2027. Regional banks and private-sector analysts remain equally optimistic, citing the UAE’s role as a global trade and investment hub.
Financially, the UAE continues to benefit from strong fundamentals. Twin fiscal and current account surpluses, high domestic liquidity, and prudent policy management have created favorable conditions for sustained expansion. With deposit growth outpacing credit expansion, banks retain strong capacity to finance industrial activity, infrastructure projects, and cross-border trade.
Inflation is expected to remain well-contained at around 1.8% in 2026, supporting stable input costs, predictable pricing, and favorable conditions for investment and consumption. This macroeconomic stability allows policymakers to maintain supportive monetary conditions without compromising financial resilience.
On the global front, improving economic activity in key markets such as the United States and Asia is expected to support demand across UAE-linked trade routes. Meanwhile, ongoing government investment in infrastructure, renewable energy, advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and digital services continues to attract private capital and enhance industrial competitiveness.
From a projected GDP base of $569 billion in 2025, the UAE is set to scale new economic highs—driven by diversification, global connectivity, and policy stability. As growth forecasts converge around the 5% mark, the UAE is not only navigating global uncertainty but actively converting it into long-term opportunity, reinforcing its status as one of the world’s most reliable and future-ready economic hubs.
Editor-at-Large
A passionate writer in the lubricant industry, Awais Iqbal has been covering oils, greases, and industrial fluids since the start of his career. At 25, he’s already written for blogs, catalogs, and brand guides across the UAE. Awais’s insights help companies connect with their audience, and his clear, helpful writing style is trusted by brands in the region.
