Russia’s crude exports have bounced back, with China stepping in after US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on India slowed shipments to the South Asian nation.
Trump’s move to double US import tariffs on Indian goods to 50%—a response to India’s continued purchases of Russian oil—has curtailed Moscow’s crude exports to India, despite New Delhi’s resistance.
Crude shipments to India fell to below 1.3 million barrels per day in the four weeks ending Aug. 31, roughly one-third lower than the March peak. Even if all undelivered cargoes were sent to India, flows would still lag by about 550,000 barrels per day, or 28%, compared with March levels.
In contrast, shipments to China surged, hitting a five-month high of 1.28 million barrels per day. Weekly crude shipments from Russian ports surged by 770,000 barrels per day, reaching a seven-week high of 3.49 million barrels, rebounding from unusually low levels the previous week. This lifted the four-week average to 3.15 million barrels per day, according to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data for the period ending Aug. 31.
Exports from the Sakhalin 2 project off Russia’s east coast resumed after a four-week pause, likely due to maintenance. In the west, flows to the Baltic port of Ust-Luga, partially disrupted by drone damage to a pumping station, were partly restored, with some volumes redirected to Primorsk.
The recent rise in Russia’s seaborne crude exports comes as Ukraine continues to target Russian refineries with drones and missiles, potentially freeing up more crude for export.
Last month, Ukraine struck at least eight Russian refineries, taking over 13% of the country’s active capacity offline. These disruptions added to slower processing rates, already affected by extended maintenance after winter drone attacks. Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev noted in July that sanctions-related delays for key equipment can prolong repair work.
A separate strike hit the Unecha pumping station on the Druzhba pipeline near Belarus, halting crude deliveries to Hungary and Slovakia and limiting flows to the Baltic port of Ust-Luga. The Baltic Pipeline System 2, which carries Russian and Kazakh crude to Ust-Luga, starts at Unecha.
Ust-Luga is expected to operate at about half capacity this month, with crude rerouted to Primorsk and Novorossiysk on the Black Sea. Primorsk has already handled a record-equaling 11 tankers last week.
Bloomberg considers ship-to-ship transfers “clandestine” when automated position signals are turned off or falsified—a tactic called spoofing—to hide vessels meeting to swap cargo.
Vessel-tracking data are verified against port-agent reports and information from other providers, including Kpler and Vortexa Ltd.
Editor-at-Large
A passionate writer in the lubricant industry, Awais Iqbal has been covering oils, greases, and industrial fluids since the start of his career. At 25, he’s already written for blogs, catalogs, and brand guides across the UAE. Awais’s insights help companies connect with their audience, and his clear, helpful writing style is trusted by brands in the region.
